Consumers Entering Holiday Season with Improving Confidence & Spending Intentions - Prosper Insights & Analytics

Holiday outlook remains constructive as confidence and 90-day spending plans rise, even while household budgets stay under pressure

WORTHINGTON, OH, UNITED STATES, October 28, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Prosper Insights & Analytics’ October 2026 Consumer Snapshot shows a U.S. consumer entering the holiday season with slightly stronger confidence and improving spending plans, even as higher everyday costs continue to shape household behavior.

Consumer confidence rose to 39.5% in October from 38.4% in September and is slightly above 39.1% a year ago. Prosper’s 90-day Spending Score also improved to 84.13, up from 82.16 last month. While both measures remain below stronger historical levels, the month-over-month improvement suggests consumers are becoming somewhat more willing to spend as the holiday season approaches.

At the same time, household pressure remains visible. Inflation awareness was broadly steady in October, and consumers continue to cope with higher prices by shopping sales more often, switching to store brands or generics, and using coupons more. The share saying their standard of living has decreased eased slightly to 33.6% from 34.4% in September, suggesting pressure remains significant but did not intensify during the month.

Gas prices continue to drive meaningful consumer trade-offs. 35.2% of adults say they will drive less because of fluctuating gas prices, compared with 27.5% last October. 22.9% say they are spending less on groceries because of gas, versus 17.4% a year ago, while only 26.8% say gas prices have had no major effect on their spending, down from 39.9% last October. The year-over-year differences show that fuel costs remain much more embedded in household budgeting than they were twelve months ago.

The emotional picture is somewhat softer. Prosper’s Consumer Mood Index declined to 98.7 from 100.6 in September and 102.5 a year ago. That divergence between mood and spending is important: consumers may be feeling less upbeat overall, yet still preparing to spend seasonally. It reinforces Prosper’s broader finding that consumer sentiment and actual spending intentions do not always move in lockstep.

Shopping behavior also shows modest tightening. The share saying they are becoming more practical and realistic in their purchases rose to 35.6%, while 39.2% say they are focusing more on just what they need. Both measures remain below year-ago levels, suggesting consumers are more disciplined than last month but not back in full austerity mode.

Major purchase plans remain mixed but stable. Compared with last year, vacation travel plans are slightly lower, while major home improvements and home-buying intentions are steady, and car-buying plans are higher. Membership trends continue to favor value-and-convenience ecosystems: Amazon Prime stands at 57.0%, while Walmart+ is at 27.1%, up from 23.2% a year ago and 18.0% two years ago.

“October’s data point to a consumer who is cautious, but still preparing to spend,” said Philip Rist, EVP Strategic Initiatives at Prosper Insights & Analytics. “Confidence and spending intentions improved as we move into the holiday season, but consumers are still dealing with higher everyday costs and making trade-offs. The opportunity for retailers and brands is to make the purchase feel worthwhile—with clear value, convenience and relevance.”

For Wall Street asset managers, Prosper’s October data support a constructive but selective holiday outlook, with relative strength in value-oriented retail, membership ecosystems, autos and housing-related categories.

For consumer brand CMOs, the message is clear: consumers are still in the market, but winning the purchase will require a strong combination of value, utility, pricing clarity and emotional relevance.

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About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a leader in consumer demand-formation data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. For more than two decades, Prosper has tracked how U.S. consumers think, feel, and plan to spend, helping organizations anticipate shifts in demand formation and make better-informed strategic decisions.

Prosper’s proprietary U.S. demand-formation databank built from ~25 years of consistent monthly measurement provides thousands of data elements on consumer spending and purchase intentions, economic expectations, behaviors, motivations and emotions—revealing changes in demand before they appear in transactions, earnings or government data. The data supports forecasting, AI/ML, econometric models, investment signals and proprietary indices. www.ProsperInsights.com

Philip Rist
Prosper Insights & Analytics
+1 614-846-0146
info@goprosper.com
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